STOCKHOLM: Sweden has a tough-love message for Britain as it prepares to trigger its EU exit: A deal within two years is unlikely, striking a good agreement will be a struggle and the UK will have to pay a big bill before it is allowed out the door.
Prime Minister Stefan Lofven says it will be “very tough” to seal a deal between Britain and the 27-nation bloc by 2019, the timeframe laid out in EU rules.
British Prime Minister Theresa May plans to invoke Article 50 of the key EU treaty, starting the formal exit process, by March 31. That sets a two-year clock ticking down to a deal — or to Britain crashing out of the EU without one.
The Swedish premier said that it is “optimistic” to think the UK can be disentangled from the bloc’s web of laws, benefits and obligations by March 2019.
Lofven acknowledged that “there was an anger” in some EU capitals after the British vote in June.
In an interview with the AP, Lofven stressed that there cannot be negotiations about a new UK-EU partnership until the terms of Britain’s exit are settled.
That will mean Britain agreeing to pay a hefty bill, currently estimated by EU officials at as much as €60 billion ($64 billion), to cover expenses the UK has committed to.
He says money “will be a big issue. Because there are some already promises given, commitments from the UK — not least pensions for EU staff.”
And unless Britain pays up, there will be no trade deal. Lofven said that “you first negotiate on how to make the exit, and then you have the other discussions.”
The message coming from Stockholm and other EU capitals raises doubts about Britain’s desire for “frictionless” trade in goods and services once it leaves the EU’s single market of half a billion people. The alternative, alarming to many UK businesses, is a “hard Brexit,” in which Britain faces restrictions or tariffs on trade.
Lofven is also concerned that Britain’s exit from the bloc could weaken Europe’s security. It is unclear whether Britain will remain a member of the EU police body Europol and other cross-border law-enforcement programs.
Sweden is not immune from the wave of populism that pushed Britain out of the EU and put President Donald Trump in the White House.
Lofven says the EU must “make sure that we can deliver in people’s daily lives” or risk more opposition.
He says it is too soon to say Brexit might be the beginning of the end of the EU.
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